Evacuees head north on Ocean Avenue in Sea Bright to return to their homes on December 13, 1992, following the major nor'easter (File photo)
Get ready for a busy season for strong winter storms, or nor'easters, along the East Coast.
The Northeast Regional Climate Center issued a forecast last month that called for a high number of strong nor'easters.
The forecast also called for average to high storm surge activity, but a low number of storms overall. The winter storm season runs from October to April.
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The last mega-nor'easter for coastal New Jersey - the December 1992 storm - caused severe flooding and damage at the Jersey Shore, in the Bayshore and in back back areas.
The Northeast Regional Climate Center, which is based at Cornell University, issued its preliminary East Coast winter storm forecast for the 2015-16 season on Aug. 18 and will update it in October.
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The center called for more than 10 strong storms this cold season. However, a low number of East Coast storms overall - less than 25 - is expected for the sixth season in a row. The center also called for more than four storms surge events this winter.
Last winter featured nine strong storms, a low number, and nine storm surge events - an average to high number, according to the center.
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East coast winter storms (nor'easters) typically move from southwest to northeast along the U.S. East Coast, according to the center.
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By definition, a storm must have: a closed circulation; be located in certain areas; move generally from the south-southwest to the north-northeast; and have winds higher than 23 mph. It also must last for at least 12 hours, according to a 2001 study on East Coast winter storm climatology.
On average, 12 East Coast winter storms developed each season from 1951 to 1997, and January was the peak month, according to the study. Storm "frequency anomalies are significantly higher during El Niño months" compared with neutral months and showed little or no change during La Niña months.
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El Niño is when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are abnormally warm. The phenomenon has global effects on the weather and climate, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. La Niña, which is marked by unusually cool temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, also has global impacts.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, there's an approximately 95 percent chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with it gradually weakening next spring.
And that could lead to a stormy winter in New Jersey.